经过26年的改革开放，中国已成功进入小康社会，而且随着经济的不断发展，领导层在社会改革以至政治改革方面都逐渐迈开脚步，“执政为民”更成为政府施政的目标。有人认为中国现在正处于历史上难得一见的盛世。
但是，盛世也有危机。由国家发展改革委员会宏观经济研究所发表的一份名为《2010年中国的三种可能前景——对98名政府和非政府专家的调查与咨询》的报告显示，98名专家中有51位认为“中国在2010年前会发生影响这个时期经济社会发展进程的重大危机”；参与调研的专家中超过半数持有这种看法，内地媒体称之为盛世危言。
为什么会把2010年作为研究的特定时间？据负责研究计划的发改委研究员表示，2010年前中国的经济社会发展处于一个关键时期，而2006年到2010年正值第11个五年计划展开期间，发改委的报告也成为了政府决策中的一项重要参考。
报告把2010年前中国社会的风险归纳为10项——就业问题、三农问题、金融问题、贫富差距、生态与资源问题、台湾问题、全球化问题、国内治理危机、信心和诚信问题、艾滋病和公共卫生。这些问题有老问题，也有新问题。中国加入世贸组织、经济全球化和信息革命令新老问题并发，令中国的改革事业进入瓶颈地带——如果危机得到解决，中国可以继续享受盛世，反之国家发展停滞不前，中国有可能重蹈上世纪六七十年代美洲国家的覆辙——在经历一段长时间的高增长期后被打回原形，国家无法跨入另一个更高、更发达的水平！
世界银行曾经发表过一份《2020年的中国》的报告，探讨未来中国的两种发展路向：一是改革陷于停滞——为了维持众多低效率的国企，消耗了国家预算和银行资金，增加了经济其他领域的负担，令中国失去了在国际市场的竞争力；此外，社会各阶层差距会日益扩大，造成社会矛盾和冲突。如果陷入上述困境，中国将会变成一个低收入国家，在世界市场的作用日减。
当然，另一种可能性是中国的改革不断深入，世界银行认为，中国极高的储蓄率、过往务实的改革成绩，以及训练有素的劳动力，都是推动往后十多年发展的主要动力。
盛世得来不易，但前景也确实有重重难关。无论是2010年或2020年，未来一段日子都充满着危机，但中国政府愿意放手让智囊机构研究并对外公布有关结果，敢于面对现实，已经走对了第一步。
(原文为香港《信报》社论，本报有删节)
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